Prices of Silicon Metal Futures Weaken, Wafer Prices Temporarily Stabilize [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM November 5:

Silicon Coal

Prices: Silicon coal market prices held steady this week, with caking silicon coal in Xinjiang at 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, non-caking silicon coal averaging 825 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal in Gansu averaging 900 yuan/mt, granular coal averaging 1,020 yuan/mt, silicon coal in Shaanxi at 750-800 yuan/mt, and silicon coal in Inner Mongolia averaging 1,200 yuan/mt.

Supply: Regional divergence was evident. In Gansu, silicon coal production was constrained due to raw coal quality issues, leading to a relatively weaker supply, while other regions maintained a produce-based-on-sales model, keeping supply relatively stable.

Demand: Silicon plants, focusing on cost control, became more rational in procurement, showing higher price sensitivity and a preference for cost-effective producing regions, indicating inter-regional demand substitution.

Silicon Metal

Prices: The silicon metal futures market experienced significant volatility yesterday, with futures prices pulling back rapidly in the afternoon, while silicon enterprise quotations remained temporarily stable. SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt. The most-traded SI2601 futures contract opened at 9,130 yuan/mt, hit an intraday low of 8,860 yuan/mt, a high of 9,175 yuan/mt, and closed at 8,895 yuan/mt. The cost-effectiveness of spot cargo increased, leading to more downstream and trader futures point-price order placements, with active transactions in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and other regions.

Production:

China's silicon metal production in October 2025 was 452,200 mt, up 31,400 mt or 7.5% MoM, but down 17,600 mt or 4% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal production from January to October 2025 was 3.4699 million mt, down 16.6% YoY. In November, supply variables are mainly seen in Sichuan and Yunnan, where combined silicon metal production is expected to drop over 50%, and national total supply is projected to fall below 400,000 mt, a decrease of 12%.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: SMM statistics showed that social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 558,000 mt as of October 30, down 1,000 mt WoW. This included 124,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 1,000 mt WoW, and 434,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot warehouse portions), down 2,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Prices

DMC: The mainstream transaction prices were 11,000-11,300 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt WoW. This was mainly influenced by a significant price jump at a monomer plant in Shandong last week, which directly quoted 12,000 yuan/mt. However, constrained by weak demand, other monomer plants remained rational, raising their quotes slightly by 100-300 yuan/mt following market changes. Actual transaction prices, however, remained anchored at the lower range, without a significant increase due to the quoted price hikes.

D4: Current offers are 11,200-12,500 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt WoW.

107 silicone rubber: Current offers are 11,400-11,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Raw silicone rubber: Current offers are 11,500-12,000 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Silicone oil: Current offers are 12,800-13,300 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

The overall operating rate remains around 70%, with supply relatively stable.

Inventory:

Affected by the slight price increase, downstream customers became more cautious in purchasing, and inventory at some monomer enterprises increased slightly.

Polysilicon

Price:

Offers for N-type recharging polysilicon were 49.4-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 52.01 yuan/kg. Market prices were largely stable, as the market awaited the latest offers from the new round of order signing and the latest self-discipline situation at month-end.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production in October is estimated at around 134,000 mt. Currently, it remains in surplus compared to downstream demand. There are expectations for production cuts in some regions in November, with production expected to drop over 10% MoM.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory rose slightly this week. At month-end, some mainstream orders for polysilicon offset part of the inventory pressure. From a supply-demand perspective, polysilicon is still in oversupply in November, and inventory buildup pressure may persist.

Wafer

Price

Market prices for N-type 18X wafers were 1.33-1.35 yuan/piece, and N-type 210N wafers were 1.68-1.7 yuan/piece. Wafer prices stabilized in the short term. The supply-demand situation for 210R wafers was relatively weak compared to the overall wafer segment, leading to chaotic transaction conditions. The other two wafer sizes still had support, with top-tier enterprises holding prices firm.

Production

According to surveys, some wafer enterprises already had production cut plans for November, and toll processing orders at specialized plants also decreased. It is basically confirmed that wafer production schedules will decline MoM in November.

Inventory

The inventory buildup trend for wafers slowed down. Transactions improved after prices loosened. Total inventory is currently below a reasonable level, and enterprises maintained steady shipments.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices for inner-layer sand were 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Domestic crucible prices fell this week, further reducing the willingness to purchase raw materials. Meanwhile, there were recent signs of downward movement in spot orders from import sand traders. Quartz sand prices are expected to decline further.

Production

In October, domestic silica enterprises are expected to reduce operations, with top-tier enterprises appropriately cutting supply to alleviate inventory pressure.

Inventory

Silica enterprises have recently seen an increase in inventory, while crucible enterprises' willingness to purchase has declined again.